Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.493416 0.574577 0.664535 0.771592 0.895493 1.034350 1.201764
2025-02-16 0.359931 0.468329 0.601894 0.778358 1.005218 1.286942 1.663356
2025-02-23 0.285588 0.402238 0.557219 0.777754 1.083146 1.490823 2.076287
2025-03-02 0.234316 0.352135 0.518607 0.770266 1.140451 1.664424 2.462113
2025-03-09 0.199063 0.316474 0.491452 0.770177 1.202098 1.845040 2.874151
2025-03-16 0.165691 0.277176 0.451518 0.742643 1.215425 1.951749 3.184487
2025-03-23 0.154911 0.271226 0.461122 0.791861 1.351876 2.259844 3.841820
2025-03-30 0.132991 0.243161 0.430528 0.770161 1.368420 2.375958 4.198781
2025-04-06 0.114247 0.217597 0.400260 0.744035 1.372474 2.469192 4.524524
2025-04-13 0.098987 0.195970 0.373734 0.720376 1.376626 2.560929 4.855233
2025-04-20 0.090068 0.184900 0.364746 0.727284 1.436428 2.756831 5.395049
2025-04-27 0.086197 0.183070 0.372739 0.767130 1.562478 3.087188 6.222532
2025-05-04 0.080155 0.176259 0.370658 0.787897 1.655908 3.370036 6.999582
2025-05-11 0.073565 0.167417 0.363457 0.797556 1.728694 3.621865 7.747317
2025-05-18 0.066876 0.157334 0.352251 0.797071 1.779793 3.834748 8.438288
2025-05-25 0.060412 0.146793 0.338626 0.789407 1.814191 4.016138 9.082633
2025-06-01 0.055285 0.138583 0.329026 0.789317 1.864884 4.237031 9.836904
2025-06-08 0.048817 0.126222 0.308375 0.761112 1.848263 4.308716 10.266349
2025-06-15 0.048057 0.127802 0.320442 0.811529 2.020225 4.820415 11.757921
2025-06-22 0.043019 0.117801 0.303440 0.789300 2.016142 4.928026 12.315618
2025-06-29 0.038308 0.107963 0.285563 0.762538 1.997544 4.999112 12.793198
2025-07-06 0.034253 0.099290 0.269502 0.738303 1.982203 5.075978 13.293175
2025-07-13 0.032077 0.095487 0.265591 0.745378 2.048141 5.359558 14.344047